Marry, Cheat, Dump – Week 10
Sometimes fixing problems in a relationship is a lot easier than winning your fantasy football league.
In this weekly column, PigskinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is going to discuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (people you should trade away or drop).
Marry, Cheat, Dump – Week 10
QBs (Andrew Luck, Eli Manning, Josh Freeman)
Marry – Andrew Luck
The Colts running game has been inept to say the least. Their two leading RBs Vick Ballard and Donald Brown have combined for 585 yards on 151 carries this year. That’s a very pedestrian 3.8 YPC. Luck is on pace for 672 pass attempts and over 4,800 yards!
He is on pace for 20 TDs which is only average for an NFL QB, but those yardage totals are sure to keep his numbers very consistent from game-to-game.
Oh yeah, and did I mention he runs a lot better than you think? He has 148 yards and 3 rushing TDs on the year with a great 5.5 YPC!
Cheat – Josh Freeman
It’s not hard to argue that Freeman is on one of the hottest streaks of any QB in the NFL right now. In his last 4 games he’s amassed 1,257 yards, 11 TDs and only 1 interception!
Over that span he’s averaging 23 fantasy points per game! That being said, it’s obviously not going to last. In those 4 games he played the Chiefs (27th against opposing QBs), the Saints (32nd), the Raiders (24th) and the Vikings (28th).
He has one more good matchup left against the Chargers (23rd) but then faces the 4 straight weeks of a pass defense ranked 13th or better (Panthers 11th, Falcons 9th, Broncos 13th, and the Eagles 12th). Ride out the hot streak one more week then get out.
Dump – Eli Manning
When you drafted him, you were expecting another 4,800+ yard 30 TD season like he had last year. In the 6 full seasons he played leading up to his phenomenal season last year he averaged just 3,600 yards, 25 TDs and 17 INTs. This year, he is on pace for a 4,300 yard, 21 TD and 16 INT season.
Looks a lot like his averages from his previous years, huh?
Last year was definitely a great year for him but he’s not Drew Brees, he’s not Aaron Rodgers, he’s not Tom Brady. You couldn’t honestly expect another year like last year. You are getting his previous year’s production but over paid for it because of what he did last year. It’s time to break it off with him, only this time Eli, it is you…not me.
RBs (Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles)
Wait…what? You mean dump…right? Nope, I’m sticking with him.
He has proven in the past that he is a top 5 RB when healthy. For much of this year, he’s been a top 3 RB in terms of fantasy points. The ups and downs are expected with Charles. They weren’t some big secret; they were there when you drafted him.
He is still averaging 4.8 YPC and getting 20 touches a game. He’s actually getting more touches this year (20 per game) than he did during his amazing 2010 season (18.5 per game). He has one of the easiest schedules for a RB from here on out.
He is a boom or bust play but sooner rather than later Romeo Crennel is going to realize that in order for them to win games, Charles must remain involved in the offense. If not, he is surely out after this year.
Cheat – Chris Johnson
CJ2K is another boom or bust player. Lately he’s been all boom! Over the last 4 games he has 526 yards rushing, 3 TDs and an average of 17 fantasy points per game!
Problem is 2 of the 4 defenses he’s faced have been sub par run defenses (I’m looking at you Buffalo and Indianapolis). And the Bears stat line would have been 15 carries for 61 yards and 0 TDs had it not been for a late 80 yard garbage time TD run.
He has another tough matchup this week against a Dolphins run defense that has not allowed more than 80 yards rushing to any single RB this year and is 6th in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.
Dump – Matt Forte
Welcome to Marry, Cheat, Dump boom/bust edition!
Truth be told, I’ve never bought into Matt Forte as a 1st round fantasy RB. He does get a lot of yards but always gets his TDs vultured. But you like Jamaal Charles? Aren’t they the same player in similar situations? They are and they aren’t.
While Charles is also solely dependent on yards and gets his TDs vultured, his touches are actually moving in an upward trend, Forte’s are going down. Last year Forte averaged almost 22 touches per game, this year…just 18.
The Bears are obviously moving more towards a passing offense as Jay Cutler has reunited with Brandon Marshall for some wonderful things…all at the expensive of Matt Forte’s production. While up big in this past weekend’s game against Tennessee, Cutler continued to throw the ball to Marshall, not run the clock out with Forte.
Forte still finished with a big game, but it’s time to sell him now before his tough schedule against some great run defenses (Houston, San Francisco, Minnesota x 2, and Seattle).
WRs (Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Dwayne Bowe)
Marry – Eric Decker
You may think Decker is more suited for the Cheat side of this column, he’s been quietly been producing all year. While he has a TD in each of the last 5 games and a total of 7 during those 5 games, he has also had a TD or 100+ yards in 6 of 8 games this year.
He is the most targeted receiver on the Broncos and has more Red Zone targets (15) then all other Broncos WRs combined (11)!
While many may argue that they want Demaryius Thomas over Decker, give me Decker!
Cheat – Randall Cobb
If you read my article last week, you read about how Randall Cobb is putting up eerily similar numbers to Victor Cruz last year.
Randall Cobb has been phenomenal while Greg Jennings has been out! In the last 5 games he has 386 total yards and 6 TDs! Over these 5 games he’s averaging 14 fantasy points per game. While the last couple weeks have seen his yards drop off he has been more than making up for it with the TDs.
I’d continue to start Cobb until we see the TDs go away, but the decreasing yards does have me concerned.
Dump – Dwayne Bowe
I’ll admit, I was big on Bowe coming into the year. He is almost always a lock for 1,100 yards and 7-9 TDs. I’ll take that all day long in the 5-6 round of most drafts.
This year, the king of garbage started off strong with a couple of big games, but with the issues at QB for the Chiefs, things do not look good.
Did you know Bowe has only scored a TD in 3 out of his last 19 games? Yikes!
He’s still getting the targets and is still getting ok yards, but it’s time to look for another WR before the Brady Quinn experiment comes back. Sell him while you still can!
About the Author – Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. He recently joined the team of featured writers at PigskinBoss.com. If you need help with your fantasy football relationships – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin