Marry, Cheat, Dump – Week 13
Welcome to another edition of Marry, Cheat, Dump fantasy football lovers!
It’s Week 13 and PigskinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is back to discuss a few players that you should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that you should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (players you should trade away or drop).
QBs (Andy Dalton, Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler)
Marry – Peyton Manning
Coming off multiple neck surgeries and a year away from the game, the expectations for Manning were that he’d maybe be a top 10 QB, but not the elite QB we’d grown to love (and in some cases, hate).
At one point this year he had 5 straight games with 3 TDs and he’s thrown for 300 yards or 3 TDs in 8 of 11 games this year.
Over the next four weeks the Broncos play Tampa Bay (26th vs. opposing QBs), at Oakland (31st), at Baltimore (6th), and vs. Cleveland (17th).
Ride him throughout your fantasy playoffs… as if you were going to do anything but.
Cheat – Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton has scored at least 20 fantasy points in the last 3 games. In those games he has 9 passing TDs (10 total TDs) & 0 interceptions.
He has a great schedule over the next three weeks to keep the streak alive.
First at San Diego who just gave up 355 yards passing to Joe Flacco. Yes… Joe Flacco! Then, vs. Dallas who gave up 311 yards and 4 TDs to a rookie, RG3, last week. Finally, at Philadelphia who’s given up at least 2 passing TDs in each of the last 5 games!
Start him up until the tough game versus a Pittsburgh pass defense that has only allowed an average of 6.5 points to opposing QBs over the last 6 games.
Dump – Jay Cutler
Cutler has been bad this year. I mean bad!
He has more turnovers than TDs (13 to 15) and is on pace to throw for under 3,000 yards this season!
To put this in perspective, all 4 rookie QBs (Luck, RG3, Tannehill, and Wilson) are all on pace for more yards than Cutler this season. Terrible.
Let’s look at his upcoming schedule.
At home against Seattle (3rd vs. opposing QBs), at Minnesota (limited him to just 188 yards and 1 TD last week), vs. Green Bay (held him to 126 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs in week 2), and finally at Arizona (4th best against opposing QBs). Yikes!
RBs (Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw)
Marry – Ahmad Bradshaw
What a difference a few weeks make – I had him in my dump column back in Week 11.
Andre Brown was coming on strong and Bradshaw was getting dinged up. During their bye week the Giants were trying out some golden oldies RBs (Joseph Addai, Kahlil Bell, Steve Slaton). Things weren’t looking good for Bradshaw’s injury and his week 12 availability. Ironically, it was Andre Brown that would break his fibula leaving Bradshaw as the new bell cow back.
There is some speculation that David Wilson will see some more carries with Brown out, but I’m not buying it. He’s been in Grandpa Coughlin’s dog house since those fumbles the first couple weeks of the season and can’t seem to find his way out.
I expect the Giants to go back to giving Bradshaw 20+ carries and to emphasize the passing game more (of which Bradshaw is also involved).
Cheat – Trent Richardson
This guy is a stud.
No matter how bad the offense, Richardson gets his fantasy points. He currently makes up for over 30% of all the Browns offensive yards this season.
He’s scored at least 13 fantasy points in 6 games this season and each of the last 4 games.
Take a look at his next two games… at Oakland (30th vs. opposing RBs) and vs. Kansas City (24th).
Keep riding Richardson throughout your fantasy playoffs the same way the Browns will ride him to 20+ carries every game.
Dump – Ray Rice
On the surface Ray Rice looks like a solid fantasy RB.
He’s the 4th highest RB in fantasy points so far this year. He has 8 double-digit fantasy point games and 20+ carries each of the last 2 games. What’s not to like?
Coming up he’s got Pittsburgh (6th best vs. opposing RBs), @ Washington (8th), Denver (9th), and finally the New York Football Giants (4th).
That’s 4 straight top 10 run defenses during the one time you want to see them the least; your fantasy playoffs.
He’s got the talent but given these tough defenses, he may not get the opportunity as the Ravens may abandon the run and go the pass early.
WRs (Victor Cruz, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson)
Marry – Brandon Marshall
How can I want to dump Jay Cutler and yet want to marry Brandon Marshall you ask?
It’s easy. Marshall is the only guy Cutler throws to.
This past week Marshall received 17 of Cutler’s 31 targets. On the season Marshall has 124 targets. Next closest Bears receiver… Earl Bennett with 40.
That’s right, Marshall has more than 3 times as many targets as anyone else on the team!
It should come as no surprise that he has 15 red zone targets and the rest of the Bears wide receivers account for only 9.
He’s scored 9 or more fantasy points in 9 out of 11 games this year and has at least 7 receptions in 7 out of 11.
He’s a stud. With Forte going down with an injury we could see a lot more of Cutler to Marshall in the upcoming weeks.
Cheat – Andre Johnson
Andre Johnson is back ladies and gentlemen. In the last two weeks he’s had 23 receptions for an astonishing 461 yards (an NFL 2 game record).
The next three weeks he plays pass defenses ranked in the bottom third of the league so don’t expect anything to change. Arian Foster will still get his work, but I think the Texans have realized they have another part of their offense back again.
Dump – Victor Cruz
Through week 7 Victor Cruz was the #1 overall Wide Receiver in fantasy. Since then, he’s averaging 3 receptions and 38 yards a game. Yeessh!
So what has caused the sudden decrease in production?
Hakeem Nicks came back in week 6 but was not himself until about week 10. If last two weeks are any indication, Eli is now focusing on Nicks and not Cruz. From week 8 on, Nicks had 38 targets to Cruz’s 29. In those two weeks…Nicks had 27 to Cruz’s 10.
The focus has definitely shifted off Cruz and so should your’s. If you have a late trade deadline, look to move him. If not, you’ve got to ride it out with him as talent does typically win out and we should see the targets get more evened out.
About the Author – Marcus Katkin has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. You can check out his Boss profile at PigskinBoss.com. If you’re having fantasy football trust issues – send your start/sit questions and grade the trades to him on Twitter @MarcusKatkin