Marry, Cheat, Dump – Week 15
PigskinBoss.com Featured Writer – Marcus Katkin is back for a playoff edition of Marry, Cheat, Dump.
He’s going to help fantasy football lovers by discussing a few players that they should Marry (hold on to and start for the foreseeable future), Cheat with (players that they should start because of their recent production but feel dirty in doing so) and Dump (players they should trade away or drop).
QBs (Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford)
Marry – Tom Brady
All home town biases aside, Tom Brady may arguably be the best fantasy QB this year; even better than RG3 and Drew Brees. Okay, maybe there’s a little bias in there, but man has he been good.
He continues to have a crazy 29 TD to 4 INT ratio and is on pace for a 4,700 yard passing season despite New England having a renewed focus to the run.
Here’s my case for him being the best fantasy QB this year…
Many people point to RG3 and Drew Brees, but one thing you want from a QB, especially in the fantasy playoffs, in consistency. Brady is the ONLY QB in fantasy that has not had a single digit fantasy game this year. Everyone, including Brees and Griffin, have had at least one disappointing game in the single digits that may have lost you a game that week. Just ask the Brees owners in week 13 when they may have been fighting their last chance at a playoff spot.
Many will speak to Griffin and Brees’ big game potential as another factor. Did you know that Brady has had as many 18 fantasy points or more games as RG3 (8) and just 1 less than Brees (9).
To sum it up, Brady has been the most consistent QB all year, and still puts up the big game potential.
Cheat – Sam Bradford
I’m diving in deep this week for the Cheat QB. I get it. He’s not the sexy name you were expecting. And, if you’re still reading this, you are firmly entrenched in the fantasy playoffs and must have had better options to get you this far. But, if you are a RG3 owner worried about his health status for this upcoming week, you could do a lot worse than Bradford.
Again, when I’m in the playoffs I want consistency. I can’t afford a bomb of a week like Andrew Luck had last week. Bradford had 9 straight weeks of double-digit points and faces 2 really bad pass defenses the next two weeks.
First up are the Vikings in St. Louis. I expect Amendola to be back for this game and the Vikings have allowed 13 passing TDs in the last 6 games. Amendola will be open for the underneath passes which will help draw the defense in for the deep passes to Chris Givens.
I expect 250 yards and 2 TDs which will get you a comfortable 18 fantasy points in a fill in role for RG3.
Dump –Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco is arguably the most consistent, inconsistent QB in fantasy.
At first glance his ups and downs are all over the place. He’ll throw for 300+ yards one week and follow it up with a 150 yard stinker the next. Fortunately, for us, I think I’ve figured out the up and down roller coaster that is Joe Flacco.
Here’s the secret… are you ready… Joe Flacco is great at home and terrible on the road.
Here’s a breakdown of his home vs. away games this year…
1,800 passing yards 11 TDs to 5 Turnovers
Averaging 300 yards per game and 16.4 fantasy points per game
1,420 passing yards 7 TDs to 7 Turnovers
Averaging 203 yards per game and 10.1 fantasy points per game
He does have his next two games at home but he can just not be trusted in the fantasy playoffs. Chances are, if you have him, you’re not even in the playoffs.
RBs (CJ Spiller, Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley)
Marry – Stevan Ridley
Let me be clear about Stevan Ridley. I hate him. He was in my Dump in last week’s article. I still don’t believe that he’s going to have big yardage games against any of the tough remaining run defenses he’ll face. So why would I now Marry him? Hmmmmm…
I am an active Patriots fan. I watch their games every week religiously. This past Monday night, I went to the game to cheer them on.
What I’ve noticed is that the Patriots make an effort to run the ball when they get in the Red Zone. This year the Patriots lead the league in RB touches in the Red Zone with 103. Next closest is the Texans with 95.
Of those 103 touches, Ridley has 56 of them. In the 3 weeks Gronkowski has been out, Ridley has 12 touches to Vereen’s 5. Even all of the Patriot’s receivers only combine for 11 touches in the Red Zone in the last 3 weeks (Welker 6, Hernandez 4, Lloyd 1). As a result, Ridley has a rushing TD in 6 straight games and 9 TDs in his last 10 games.
He’s not going to get the rushing yards, only 1 100+ yard game in the last 8, but you can bank on 70-85 yards and a TD each week.
Cheat – Alfred Morris
Hey! Mike Shanahan! You want to win games…right? Then feed Morris the ball!
In games where Morris has 20+ carries, the Redskins are 6-1. In games where Morris gets less than 20 carries, they are 1-5. In the 7 games where he got at least 20 carries he went over 100 yards rushing in 5 of them.
Morris has gone over 100 yards in each of his last 3 games and faces the Browns, Eagles and Cowboys in the upcoming 3 weeks to finish out the season. All of which can be run on!
Dump – CJ Spiller
It looks like Fred Jackson is going to be out for the year and Spiller will be the bell cow back for the Bills again.
So how did he end up in my Dump section?
Don’t get me wrong. I love CJ Spiller! I think he is a beast when being the lead back. Next year I see the Bills cutting Fred Jackson and his $5 million dollar contract and rolling with Spiller as the main guy. I’ll have him easily in my top 7 RBs next year (Foster, Peterson, Lynch, Richardson, Rice, Spiller, Charles…in that order).
What I don’t like this year is his remaining schedule. This week he faces the 4th best run defense against opposing RBs (Seattle) then faces a Miami run defense which was the top ranked run defense for much of the season. Both games will be close games, Spiller will get work and has the big play ability to break one at any moment but those run defenses will just be too much for the Bills offensive line to handle.
WRs (Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace)
Marry – Andre Johnson
Johnson started off the year slow but has really been picking it up the last few weeks. I wrote about him in the Cheat section of Week 13 and he is still going strong!
At least 8 catches in 6 of his last 8 games! While the TDs have not been there they will come. In the meantime, Johnson is a PPR Beast and an every week must start! Only thing you need to worry about is the Texans shutting down their stars once they clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Cheat – Mike Wallace
Wallace has been in Mike Tomlin’s doghouse for a little while now. But nothing will get him back in Tomlin’s good graces than the big games he gets when Ben Roethlisberger is playing.
In games where Roethlisberger was the QB this year, Wallace has 47 receptions for 644 yards and 8 TDs (10.5 games). With Roethlisberger out, Wallace has 12 receptions for 84 yards and 0 TDs (3.5 games).
Expect more good things now that Roethlisberger is back.
Dump – Marques Colston
He’s got an elite QB and is on a pass first team that’s averaging over 41 pass attempts a game and just cannot get anything done lately.
Since their bye in week 6, Colston only has 2 double-digit fantasy games and has not had a 100+ yard receiving day. Since the bye he is third on the Saints team in receiving yards.
It’s hard to believe that he is still somehow has the 13th most fantasy points among WRs this year.
Thanks for reading & good luck in the playoffs!
About the Author – Marcus Katkin is a loyal New England Patriots fan who has been playing Fantasy Football for the past 20 years. If you’re having fantasy football trust issues – send your start/sit questions to Marcus at PigskinBoss.com or on Twitter @MarcusKatkin